Five Dark Horses Who Could Make the 2026 World Cup Unforgettable

The 2022 World Cup gave us Japan eliminating Germany and Spain in the group stage. It gave us Morocco reaching the semi-finals. It gave us Saudi Arabia dismantling Argentina in what remains the single most shocking result of the 21st century. The tournament was defined not by the favourites confirming their status but by the sides that nobody had in their accumulators producing moments that no simulation could have predicted. In 2026 — with 48 teams, three host nations, and a format that gives every underdog more time to build — the conditions for historic upsets are structurally superior to any previous World Cup. These are the five sides most likely to be that story.

1. USA — The Host Nation With Actual Quality

Host nation advantages are well-documented: home crowds, familiar travel, no jet lag, partisan refereeing decisions on the margins. The United States have all of that — plus, for the first time in their World Cup history, a genuinely world-class squad to go with it. The generation of Americans who grew up watching the Premier League, the Bundesliga, and La Liga on their phones has produced a wave of technically accomplished players who play their club football at the highest European level. Christian Pulisic — still the squad's creative centre — is now in his prime years and playing with the confidence of a serial club winner. Ricardo Pepi, finally consistent at club level, gives them the striker they have always lacked. They will not win this tournament. But on their best day, on home soil, before a crowd of 80,000 Americans who have been building toward this moment for four years, they can beat anyone in the quarter-finals. Back them to reach the last eight at 7/2 (Betway). It is genuinely underpriced.

2. Japan — The System That Beats Everyone

Japan eliminated two of the tournament's strongest squads in 2022 and were only beaten by Croatia on penalties — a result that, replayed ten times, goes different ways in at least four of them. Their squad has not declined since then. It has improved. The generation of Japanese players competing in Europe's top five leagues has grown — Takefusa Kubo at Real Sociedad, Ritsu Doan at Freiburg, Wataru Endo at Liverpool, and several others whose names European fans are already familiar with. Japan's coach has built a system of extraordinary pressing intensity combined with technically precise attacking play that is among the most coherent in the entire competition. They are not a surprise any more. They are a genuine danger, and the teams who treat them as a soft draw will leave the tournament early.

3. Colombia — South America's Forgotten Contender

In the South American qualification cycle, Colombia were the third-best team in the continent — behind only Brazil and Argentina, ahead of Uruguay, Ecuador, and Chile. That calibre of qualifying form does not typically produce round-of-16 exits in tournaments, but Colombia have been consistently underrated by bookmakers and pundits for a generation. Luis Díaz — Liverpool's relentless left-winger — is the most dynamic attacker in the squad, capable of the individual moments that change knockout games. James Rodríguez, at 34, is still the creative intelligence that unlocks defences. If both are fit, Colombia can beat anyone in their bracket through the quarter-finals. At 16/1 to win the tournament, they represent the best outright value in the South American group.

4. Portugal — The Squad Without a Dominant Narrative

Portugal are not a dark horse in the conventional sense — they are expected to reach the latter stages and will be in many people's tips. What makes them worth a different kind of attention is the specific uncertainty around how they will perform without a generational player dictating the tournament narrative. The post-Ronaldo Portugal squad is, technically, the most complete collection of players the country has assembled. Bruno Fernandes leads with conviction. Bernardo Silva and Vitinha create with intelligence. Rafael Leão stretches defences. But nobody in this squad has won a World Cup, and the absence of the organising psychological force that Ronaldo provided — for good and ill — creates a team that is theoretically excellent but practically unpredictable. They will either be the most clinical tournament team in the competition, or they will be eliminated in the quarter-finals in a manner that generates a week of national reflection. The uncertainty is not a weakness. It is what makes them fascinating.

5. Morocco — The Dark Horse Who Has Stopped Being a Dark Horse

Morocco are not a dark horse any more — their 2022 semi-final run converted them from a surprise to an expectation. But the word is used here advisedly: in the context of outright winner markets and casual tournament tip sheets, Morocco are still being priced and treated as though a trophy remains beyond them. It does not. Walid Regragui has now had four years to evolve the system that shocked the world in Qatar. The squad is deeper, the tactics are more developed, and several players — Azzedine Ounahi, Hakim Ziyech, Sofyan Amrabat — are now operating at peak European club level rather than building toward it. If Morocco draw a favourable bracket in the knockout rounds, the semi-final is the floor, not the ceiling. Back them at 22/1 to win the tournament. It is the best each-way value in the outright market. By a distance.